Saginaw, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS63 KDTX 251637
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1237 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable conditions will exist to finish the weekend.

- Warming trend Monday as dry conditiosn persist, before showers and
thunderstorms return Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Despite mid-level dry air, a steep low-level inversion just above
2000 feet (per 12z DTX raob) has trapped sufficient moisture from
northerly flow off Lake Huron to maintain low clouds (High IFR/Low
MVFR) across Southeast Michigan. There is good agreement for low
MVFR ceilings to hold through the day; however, confidence
diminishes this evening and tonight as drier surface dew points are
indicated.

Low-level winds will veer to the northeast-east and become light
overnight. It is possible that enough dry air arrives from southern
Ontario to allow skies to scatter or clear over the southern TAF
sites, similar to the northern locations. As the upper-level ridge
axis builds over the Central Great Lakes tonight, increased
subsidence and lowering inversion heights should help scatter the
low clouds, though exact timing remains subject to change.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms expected through this TAF
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon, medium this
  evening, then low.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

DISCUSSION...

Early morning sfc analysis shows an occluded front bisecting
southeast MI, extending southeast from stalled parent low pressure
over southern SK. This front connects to weak low pressure migrating
from Metro Detroit into the upper Ohio Valley, with patchy fog and
stratus wrapping around this system. Eventually the front becomes
orphaned off into a remnant trough as mid-level shortwave ridging
builds overhead today. The result will be a strengthening inversion
that traps abundant low-level moisture, with morning fog mixing out
into the thick stratus layer which holds in place through the day.
Persistent north wind feeds cooler air beneath the inversion and
limits highs to the 50s for most of the area, or near the seasonal
average. Low 60s will still be achievable for the I-94 corridor and
areas south, while the Lake Huron shoreline stays cooler in the
upper 40s. The stratus shows some potential for scattering in the
Saginaw Valley and Thumb by late afternoon as drier air with origins
over southern Ontario spreads across Lake Huron.

The mid-level ridge crests overhead tonight into Sunday, ensuring
stable and dry conditions prevail through the weekend. The drier air
from Ontario gains more ground which favors a lower cloud fraction
by Sunday morning, but easterly flow off western Lake Erie likely
holds some stratus in the south - at least early before daytime
mixing helps erode this cloud too. The boost in insolation helps
temperatures take a step up into the lower to mid 60s.

The dry and stable weather continues into Monday with temperatures
taking another another step toward the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Upstream, a potent shortwave will pass over the Rockies and induce
cyclogenesis over the central Plains. This low tracks from the
Midwest into the northern Great Lakes Monday night with deep layer
southerly flow advecting an arc of elevated moisture in overnight
into Tuesday morning to fuel a round of convection. The peak in
synoptic ascent looks to occur after daybreak Tuesday morning as the
negatively tilted trough passes overhead. A narrow warm sector
passing through the region brings a window for storms to become
surface-based with enough balance between marginal instability and
wind shear to support a low chance of isolated strong to severe
storms before the cold front sweeps through early afternoon.

Longwave troughing progresses across central Canada and descends
into the Great Lakes midweek. Low confidence exists on timing of
individual systems as there will be several shorter wavelength
perturbations undergoing interactions during this period, but the
synoptic setup supports a period of cooler and occasionally
unsettled weather through late week.

MARINE...

Departing low pressure early this morning sets up modest
northeasterly flow in its wake. While most of the region holds at or
below 20kts for peak wind, the long fetch and now `mild` water
temperatures likely support enhancement of winds funneling into the
Saginaw Bay. Gusts look capable to peak in the mid to upper 20kt
range warranting a Small Craft Advisory through the evening. High
pressure then expands over the Great Lakes this evening/overnight
gradually weakening winds. Influence of said high holds through
early Monday maintaining light winds and dry conditions to close out
the weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KDK


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.